Jehovah's Witnesses Straight Talk - Forum/Blog

March 31, 2020

Speculation is another form human wisdom which is find, but when engaged in by those in charge of truth its no better than lies!

Psalms 25:5 Guide me in your truth, and teach me, For you are the God of my salvation, I wait for you all day long.

Psalms 43:3 Oh, send out your light and your truth. Let them lead me. Let them bring me to your holy hill, To your tents.

Psalms 52:3 You love evil more than good, lying rather than speaking the truth. Selah.

1 John 3:18 My little children, let's not love in word only, neither with the tongue only, but in deed and truth.

Facts: It was a world-is-ending projection two weeks ago of as many as 500,000 dead in the United Kingdom and as many as 2.2 million dead in the United States, offered up by professor Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London, that fired up the media’s panic machine. However, overlooked in the hyper-reaction was that this was an unlikely worst-case scenario based on nothing being done to stop the virus’s spread. And Ferguson (who reportedly contracted the virus himself) subsequently cut the projected number of British deaths in half as the government there ramped up its response — and has since drastically scaled it back yet again, to fewer than 20,000 deaths in Britain. As the National Review correctly points out, “Models like this will always turn out to be wrong in some way or other, because they rely on very strong assumptions about aspects of the disease we haven’t thoroughly studied yet. If nothing else, the original Imperial model will be obsolete soon."  By The Hill

Models based on assumptions in the absence of data can be over-speculative and ‘open to gross over-interpretation

The lessons to be learned from the coronavirus pandemic will keep scholars and university lecturers busy for decades to come. Chief among them is the value of modelling, and the fact that an uncritical reliance on their findings can lead you badly astray.

Paul Klenerman, one of the Oxford researchers, called the 68% figure the most extreme result and explained that “there is another extreme which is that only a tiny proportion have been exposed”. The true figure, which is unknown, was likely somewhere in between, he said. By The Guardian

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